Saturday, March 05, 2005

Digging it up

“One can not plant a seed, expect it to grow and keep digging it up to find out”

Found this on the wall at the muffler shop while I waited for my car to be fixed.I have been thinking lately of were my game is and it occurred to me I was digging up my seed. Here is what I came up with:

1) The Novice – We all know this player. Puts money in because he saw it on TV, ran his deposit up and claimed how easy it was only to see it dwindle down to nothing in short order and you never heard from him again. You’ll hear him shout to all who will listen that the internet is rigged. He just threw his seed out on the ground and even though the seed fought valiantly, it never had a chance and died.

2) The Amateur – He has also seen poker on TV but has gone out to buy a book or two. He thinks he is ready for the big time, he has done ok, he is on his 4th reload deposit and the last one made it about 6 months. He keeps getting on good runs and then for some reason, everyone keeps getting lucky and beats his hands that were winning yesterday. He knows that their luck will run out soon, so he keeps plodding away. He prepared a spot for his seed, planted it and then ignored it. It took root enough to live and is struggling to survive. It is about 60/40 to bust out but is not beyond hope if he finds help.

3) The Semi-Pro – He has read most of the books out there. Belongs to a forum or two and is genuinely interested in improving his game. He plays about 20 hours a week and can say he is at least a break even player early in his career. He will analysis his play, seek advice and is on the verge of being profitable. Yet he may be the most dangerous to himself. He prepared a spot for his seed, planted it, watered it, took care of it and it is growing. As soon as there are signs of trouble though, he digs it up to see if it is alright. He doesn’t fully understand that in order for the seed to grow into maturity, it has to stand up to the elements on its own. Take its lumps and stand firm.

4) The Pro – He has it all together. He understands all the many angles of the game. He makes a living from the game and respects it. He expects wins and loses, and has come to understand them. He realizes that there is always another game. He planted his seed a long time ago; it is matured and can stand up to must anything. There are times that it becomes weak, but the Pro will prune to keep the whole strong. He is a master and it shows.

Though I play this game for income I use to live on, I am at level 3. I over analyze and the variance of the game gets too involved in my decision making. I keep digging up my seed to see if it is ok. My game still leans towards weak/tight because it means safe to me. I understand wins and loses’ but maybe not variance fully. I know what it is but don’t fully understand its effect yet. I’m winning and have the PT numbers to prove it, but am I getting the value that I should be getting? Should my 10 bb wins really be 20 bb wins? That is what I am trying to figure out know.

Speaking of variance, I did some research before I came down here. The part I needed for the Toyota is $330 at Auto Zone. Everyone said come to this particular shop to get it fixed because is can do “miracles”. So I sit here expecting about a $600 bill and two days wait. He comes out and says $61.20 and I was out in 45 minutes! Sometimes variance can be good huh.

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